The use of Factorial Forecasting to predict public response

Policies that call for members of the public to change their behavior fail if people don’t change; predictions of whether the requisite changes will take place are needed prior to implementation. I propose to solve the prediction problem with Factorial Forecasting, a version of functional measurement methodology that employs group designs. Aspects of the proposed new policy are factorially manipulated within scenarios, and respondents typical of those whose behavior would [...]

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